{"id":77935,"date":"2026-05-05T09:18:34","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T16:18:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/?p=77935"},"modified":"2026-05-05T09:18:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T16:18:34","slug":"gurney-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/gurney-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate\u00a0scientist\u00a0finds large errors\u00a0in\u00a0Al Gore-founded\u00a0Climate TRACE, a\u00a0global\u00a0climate pollution database"},"content":{"rendered":"

New research from\u00a0Northern Arizona University\u00a0found\u00a0that\u00a0a global\u00a0greenhouse gas emissions\u00a0database\u00a0produced by\u00a0the Climate\u00a0TRACE\u00a0consortium, co-founded by former Vice President Al Gore,\u00a0is underestimating\u00a0vehicle\u00a0carbon dioxide\u00a0emissions\u00a0in cities\u00a0by an average of\u00a070%.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Today,\u00a0professor\u00a0Kevin Gurney<\/strong>\u00a0of NAU\u2019s\u00a0School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems\u00a0(SICCS)\u00a0published\u00a0results<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0<\/span>Environmental Research Letters\u00a0analyzing the carbon dioxide\u00a0<\/span>(CO<\/span>2<\/span>)\u00a0emissions from\u00a0cars and trucks\u00a0in the recently released Climate\u00a0TRACE\u00a0database.\u00a0He said these findings, combined with\u00a0a previous\u00a0study noting similar discrepancies at power plants,\u00a0raise concerns because\u00a0accurate\u00a0and reliable information on greenhouse gas emissions is a critical ingredient for society\u2019s response to climate change.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the importance of vehicle\u00a0CO<\/span>2<\/span>\u00a0emissions in cities,\u00a0we carefully examined the\u00a0Climate\u00a0TRACE\u00a0data which relied on\u00a0promising\u00a0new artificial intelligence-based approaches,\u201d\u00a0Gurney\u00a0said. \u201cWhen combined with our previous study on Climate TRACE\u00a0power plant\u00a0CO<\/span>2<\/span>\u00a0emissions,\u00a0our results\u00a0suggest that\u00a0the\u00a0Climate TRACE\u00a0data\u00a0significantly underestimate\u00a0over half\u00a0of U.S.\u00a0fossil fuel-based\u00a0CO<\/span>2<\/span>\u00a0emissions\u00a0in cities.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Gurney and his team matched the Climate\u00a0TRACE\u00a0urban vehicle CO<\/span>2<\/span>\u00a0emissions\u00a0in the\u00a0United States\u00a0to a\u00a0similar \u201conroad\u201d\u00a0database, Vulcan,\u00a0produced by Gurney\u2019s laboratory,\u00a0which\u00a0is\u00a0calibrated to official traffic and energy\u00a0consumption\u00a0data.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the Vulcan\u00a0onroad\u00a0data\u00a0is not perfect,\u00a0with\u00a0uncertainty of about 14%, this is far lower than the differences found when we compared\u00a0260 city vehicle CO<\/span>2<\/span>\u00a0emissions\u00a0in the\u00a0U.S.\u00a0to the Climate\u00a0TRACE\u00a0database,\u201d said\u00a0Bilal Aslam<\/strong>, a\u00a0SICCS postdoc and\u00a0co-investigator on the study.\u00a0\u201cThe\u00a0Climate TRACE\u00a0CO<\/span>2<\/span>\u00a0emissions were, on average,\u00a070% lower than those same emissions in the Vulcan\u00a0onroad\u00a0CO<\/span>2<\/span>\u00a0emissions\u00a0database.\u201d\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIndividual cities such as Indianapolis and Nashville were lower by more than 90%,\u201d added\u00a0Pawlok\u00a0Dass<\/strong>,\u00a0a research associate in SICCS and\u00a0contributor to the study.\u00a0The study\u2019s\u00a0authors suspect the\u00a0underestimation\u00a0is present globally\u00a0and raise\u00a0concerns about many other aspects of the Climate TRACE database.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

They\u00a0believe that,\u00a0though artificial intelligence is a promising approach to providing information on many environmental\u00a0metrics, scientific rigor,\u00a0transparency\u00a0and expert review remain essential to\u00a0ensuring\u00a0accuracy and\u00a0maintaining\u00a0trust. Accurate assessment of greenhouse gas emissions\u00a0remains\u00a0a cornerstone of effective\u00a0climate policies.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The\u00a0publication\u00a0also\u00a0makes\u00a0a number of\u00a0recommendations to improve and advance the work Climate TRACE is doing to help inform policy and budget choices aimed at reducing emissions.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe will never estimate emissions with perfect accuracy, but we must ensure that the data shared with policymakers and the public\u00a0is unbiased\u00a0and\u00a0meets\u00a0best practices and\u00a0the\u00a0most rigorous scientific standards available,\u201d Gurney\u00a0said.\u00a0\u201cWithout this, we mislead decision makers and potentially lose public trust in our ability to tackle climate change.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Gurney, who specializes in atmospheric science, ecology and public policy, has spent the past two decades developing a standardized system quantifying greenhouse gas emissions in the\u00a0U.S. His\u00a0<\/span>Vulcan<\/span><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/span>Hestia<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>project<\/span>s,\u00a0funded by multiple federal agencies<\/span>,\u00a0<\/span>quantifies and visualizes greenhouse gases emitted across the entire country down to individual power plants, neighborhoods and roadways,\u00a0identifying\u00a0\u201chotspots\u201d\u00a0and enabling better decisions about where to cut emissions most effectively. His estimates have shown excellent performance when compared to direct atmospheric monitoring.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Gurney<\/span><\/a>\u00a0has authored more than 180 scientific publications\u00a0with\u00a0more than\u00a020,000 citations,\u00a0including a recent U.S. National Academy Report,\u00a0\u201cGreenhouse Gas Emissions for\u00a0Decisionmaking.\u201d\u00a0He has been involved with the United Nations Climate Change Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol for more than 25 years and is a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New research from\u00a0Northern Arizona University\u00a0found\u00a0that\u00a0a global\u00a0greenhouse gas emissions\u00a0database\u00a0produced by\u00a0the Climate\u00a0TRACE\u00a0consortium, co-founded by former Vice President Al Gore,\u00a0is underestimating\u00a0vehicle\u00a0carbon dioxide\u00a0emissions\u00a0in cities\u00a0by an average of\u00a070%.\u00a0\u00a0 Today,\u00a0professor\u00a0Kevin Gurney\u00a0of NAU\u2019s\u00a0School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems\u00a0(SICCS)\u00a0published\u00a0results\u00a0in\u00a0Environmental Research Letters\u00a0analyzing the carbon dioxide\u00a0(CO2)\u00a0emissions from\u00a0cars and trucks\u00a0in the recently released Climate\u00a0TRACE\u00a0database.\u00a0He said these findings, combined with\u00a0a previous\u00a0study noting similar discrepancies at power…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":77936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-academics"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77935","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77935"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77935\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}