{"id":77533,"date":"2026-04-06T09:55:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T16:55:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/?p=77533"},"modified":"2026-04-06T16:22:41","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T23:22:41","slug":"forest-thinning-cost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/forest-thinning-cost\/","title":{"rendered":"ERI study targets cost hurdles in forest restoration"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the West faces increasingly destructive wildfires, land managers rely on mechanical thinning to reduce hazardous fuels and restore forest health.\u00a0But one obstacle continues to slow this work down:\u00a0Thinning costs are notoriously difficult to estimate from one\u00a0project\u00a0to the next.\u00a0Uncertainty around those numbers\u00a0raises\u00a0concerns that outdated cost estimates may be holding critical restoration projects back.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That uncertainty plays out on the ground. When contractors\u00a0can\u2019t\u00a0tell whether a project will\u00a0cover their costs, many simply choose not to bid.\u00a0Each unclaimed project means another patch of forest left overgrown, another season where communities stay\u00a0vulnerable\u00a0and another year where the risk of severe wildfire grows.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A new study<\/span><\/a>\u202ffrom\u202fNorthern Arizona University\u2019s Ecological Restoration Institute, published in the\u202fJournal of Forestry,\u202flooks into\u00a0that problem by examining\u00a0how the\u00a0U.S.\u00a0Forest Service estimates the\u00a0costs\u00a0of mechanical thinning\u00a0through\u00a0its Transaction Evidence Appraisal, or TEA,\u202fmethod.\u202f\u202f<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The researchers found that improving this cost-estimating system could make thinning projects easier and more affordable for the companies that do the work,\u00a0ultimately helping\u00a0accelerate the treatments needed to reduce wildfire risk in national forests.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe better we understand where the big costs are,\u202fwhether that\u2019s\u00a0cutting and loading trees or hauling them long distances,\u202fthe\u00a0more transparent TEA can be,\u201d said ERI research associate\u00a0<\/span>Tucker Herbert<\/span><\/b>, the study\u2019s lead author. \u201cThat helps contractors plan and keeps their margins from getting too thin.\u201d\u202f\u202f<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For\u202fnearly 40\u202fyears,\u202fTEA\u202fhas\u00a0quietly shaped how\u00a0forest restoration happens.\u00a0The tool is designed to estimate the\u00a0fair market value\u00a0of timber on a project and account for costs like\u00a0felling\u00a0trees, loading\u00a0logs\u00a0and hauling them to the nearest mill.\u00a0But the ERI team\u00a0found that TEA\u2019s data can become outdated\u00a0quickly\u00a0and that the tool\u00a0doesn\u2019t\u00a0always reflect\u00a0differences across\u00a0landscapes, like how far logs must\u00a0travel\u00a0or how many mills are nearby.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Those details matter because timber removal and transport make up the vast majority of thinning costs.\u00a0Much of\u00a0today\u2019s\u00a0restoration involves removing small, tightly packed trees with little commercial value, so contractors need\u00a0accurate\u00a0numbers simply to break even. When cost estimates are unclear or\u00a0don\u2019t\u00a0reflect actual conditions, contractors may walk away.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhen people don\u2019t understand how the price for trees is set, sometimes no one ends up bidding,\u201d Herbert said. \u201cAnd that slows everything down, including the restoration work.\u201d<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The ERI study found that more than 90% of total sale costs came from just two\u00a0factors: cutting trees and trucking them to a mill. In regions like the Rocky Mountains, where mills are\u00a0few and far between, long-haul distances drove costs sharply upward. In areas with more mills nearby,\u00a0such as northern Colorado,\u00a0costs were\u00a0lower,\u00a0and contractors were more willing to take on projects.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe tricky thing about TEA is that markets are dynamic,\u201d\u00a0Herbert said.\u202f\u201cThe system\u00a0has to be updated frequently to reflect mill capacity, haul distances and changing product demand.\u201d\u202f<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But in the Southwest, researchers found that competition among bidders played an especially\u00a0important role. Projects that attracted more companies were more likely to sell and move forward;\u00a0fewer bids meant a higher chance of no sale and further delays. Sales involving\u00a0more\u00a0timber drew stronger interest, while projects requiring longer skidding distances\u00a0(dragging logs to loading areas)\u00a0deterred bidders who\u00a0couldn’t\u00a0absorb the added cost.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Improving TEA, the authors say, could help restore forests more efficiently across the West. In places like Arizona and New Mexico, where restoration depends on having enough companies willing to do the work, a clearer, more up-to-date appraisal system could bring more contractors to the table.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And more competition typically means better prices for the Forest Service\u2014and more acres treated before wildfire risk escalates.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re trying to make sure the system is transparent, consistent\u00a0and grounded in real market conditions out there on the landscape,\u201d\u202fHerbert said.\u202f\u201cWhen contractors can trust the appraisal, they can bid with confidence\u00a0and\u202fthat\u2019s how restoration moves forward.\u201d\u202f<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>
\n\"Northern
\n<\/span>Danika Thiele | Ecological Restoration Institute
\n(928) 523-2851 | danika.thiele@nau.edu<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the West faces increasingly destructive wildfires, land managers rely on mechanical thinning to reduce hazardous fuels and restore forest health.\u00a0But one obstacle continues to slow this work down:\u00a0Thinning costs are notoriously difficult to estimate from one\u00a0project\u00a0to the next.\u00a0Uncertainty around those numbers\u00a0raises\u00a0concerns that outdated cost estimates may be holding critical restoration projects back.\u00a0 That uncertainty…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":77536,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-academics"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77533\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}