{"id":71838,"date":"2024-03-28T11:19:13","date_gmt":"2024-03-28T18:19:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/?p=71838"},"modified":"2024-03-28T15:13:28","modified_gmt":"2024-03-28T22:13:28","slug":"fewsion-colorado-river","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/fewsion-colorado-river\/","title":{"rendered":"Where is the Colorado River going?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Colorado River loses 19.3 million acre feet of water per year to cities, farms and evaporation\u2014roughly the amount of water used by the 50 largest U.S. cities each year. This loss now exceeds water added to the river by the water cycle, resulting in a shortage of water, which triggered a formal declaration of a Tier 1 water shortage beginning in 2021\u2014along with cuts in water deliveries, especially to farmers in the state of Arizona.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Stabilizing this icon of the American West is possible, according to a study published today in Nature Communications Earth &amp; Environment, but it will require significant reductions in water use, especially from the irrigated agriculture industry. This new accounting of water use in the Colorado River Basin shows that almost half of water consumed in this region in the last two decades goes to cattle-feed crops such as alfalfa and grass hay.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The findings provide an authoritative update to results from a widely publicized 2020 study published in Nature Sustainability. This new publication, led by Brian Richter of Sustainable Waters, includes three researchers at Northern Arizona University with the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/fewsion.us\/\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">FEWSION Project<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">: postdoctoral scholar <\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Laljeet Singh Sangha<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, assistant research professor <\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Richard Rushforth<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> and professor <\/span><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Benjamin Ruddell<\/span><\/b><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> in the School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems (SICCS).\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Given how complicated water consumption in the Colorado River basin is, the NAU team had to undertake an exhaustive process to document monthly Central Arizona Project deliveries back to 2000 to track the final use of the water, whether agricultural, municipal and industrial, or transferred between different types of water users through various agreements.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cThis research is a result of an exhaustive process of incorporating as much of the known, publicly available data on the who, what, why and how Colorado River water is consumed across the basin,\u201d Rushforth said. \u201cGiven the state of the reconsultation of Colorado River allocations, this work has the potential to inform the future of the river basin.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The data showed:<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Symbol&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\uf0b7&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Agriculture is the dominant use of Colorado River water; irrigated agriculture accounted for 52% of overall use and 74% of direct human consumption. This represents a modest reduction from estimates published in 2020.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Symbol&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\uf0b7&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Cattle-feed crops such as irrigated hay and alfalfa are the dominant water-consuming crops, accounting for 62% of all Colorado River agricultural water consumed.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-listid=\"1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{&quot;335552541&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:720,&quot;335559991&quot;:360,&quot;469769226&quot;:&quot;Symbol&quot;,&quot;469769242&quot;:[8226],&quot;469777803&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;469777804&quot;:&quot;\uf0b7&quot;,&quot;469777815&quot;:&quot;hybridMultilevel&quot;}\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" data-aria-level=\"1\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Cattle-feed crops consume 90% of all water used by irrigated agriculture within the Upper Basin, above Lake Powell.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Understanding where this water is going is critical right now, as multiple legal agreements intended to temporarily reduce water use expire in 2026. As states, tribes and countries renegotiate those deals, they need authoritative and independent scientific information on how the river\u2019s water is used.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">&#8220;The Biden Administration&#8217;s draft plan released in early March 2024 calls for three million acre feet per year in cuts by 2026,\u201d Ruddell said. \u201cBased on this new paper&#8217;s findings, this draft plan is likely to succeed in stabilizing the Colorado River and its two major reservoirs, but only if the plan is implemented quickly enough. Implementation before the summer growing season of 2024 would be better.&#8221;<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The researchers gathered data from 2000-2019, estimating the balance of water removed from the river by people, ecosystems and evaporation. The data sources include the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, the Central Arizona Project, Arizona Department of Water Resources and a variety of prior scientific studies.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The numbers presented in this study demonstrate that stabilizing the Colorado River is possible, but it will require significant reductions in water use. A reduction of 2.4-3.2 million acre feet per year or roughly 17% should stabilize reservoir levels in 2024. By 2050, that reduction may need to be doubled to roughly 33% from current usage as a warmer climate reduces snowmelt and other water supplied to the Colorado River.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">For perspective, the reduction needed this year is similar to the State of Arizona\u2019s entire allocation, and in 2050 the reduction needed may be roughly equivalent to the Lower Basin\u2019s entire allocation\u2014illustrating that this is not a problem that can be solved by one state or irrigation district alone, nor by the Lower Basin without the Upper Basin.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The entire reduction in water use needed to stabilize the Colorado River could be achieved by reducing irrigated agricultural water deliveries and investing in improved irrigation efficiency. More than half of the irrigated agricultural production in the Basin can probably be preserved for the long term. Of course, added investment in water conservation in cities will also help\u2014but city water conservation is not enough to solve the problem without large agricultural cuts.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The 2020 Richter et al. study in Nature Sustainability argued that voluntary and auction-priced rotational fallowing programs are an effective mechanism for agricultural water use reduction, by arranging for cities to pay farmers to temporarily reduce water use during dry years. This mechanism minimizes the cost of the water cuts to taxpayers and mitigates the financial impact on farmers.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>The research was funded in part through NSF on the Transformation Network SRS-RN (NSF CBET #2115169).<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-56007\" src=\"http:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wordpresst\/uploads\/sites\/153\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514-300x213.png\" alt=\"Northern Arizona University Logo\" width=\"114\" height=\"81\" srcset=\"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/402\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/402\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514-768x546.png 768w, https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/402\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514-600x426.png 600w, https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/402\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514.png 905w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 114px) 100vw, 114px\" \/>Heidi Toth | NAU Communications<br \/>\n(928) 523-8737 | <a href=\"mailto:heidi.toth@nau.edu\">heidi.toth@nau.edu<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"search-results-excerpt-link\" href=\"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/fewsion-colorado-river\/\">The Colorado River loses 19.3 million acre feet of water per year to cities, farms and evaporation\u2014roughly the amount of water used by the 50 largest U.S. cities each year. This loss now exceeds water added to the river by the water cycle, resulting in a shortage of water, which triggered a formal declaration of&hellip;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":71839,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-71838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-academics"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71838"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71838\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71839"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}