During this time, more than 1,800 monogenetic volcanoes erupted in the region, according to a count covering Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and parts of California\u2019s eastern edge. Add in the Pinacate volcanic field, located mostly in the Mexican border state of Sonora, and the number goes up to more than 2,200, scientists say. (The volcanoes included are ones whose ages are estimated to be in the range of the Quaternary, but many have not been precisely dated.)<\/p>\n
With Flagstaff sitting in a volcanic field where multiple monogenetic volcanoes have erupted in the past, a better understanding of possible hazards is important for people who live there.<\/p>\n
\u201cTwo of the most recent eruptions in the Southwest occurred near Flagstaff about 1,000 years ago, one just outside of town and the other on the north rim of the Grand Canyon,\u201d said Michael Ort<\/strong>, professor emeritus of geology at NAU. \u201cPeople living there at the time adapted to the effects of the eruptions, changing agricultural and cultural practices as well as where they lived. We will need to do the same when the next one erupts. Albuquerque also has young volcanoes along its western margin.\u201d<\/p>\n Greg Valentine, a University at Buffalo volcanologist and lead author on the paper, said monogenetic volcanoes erupt once and then die. The one eruption may last for several days or even years, but after it\u2019s finished, the volcano doesn\u2019t erupt again. Because of that, they get less attention than active volcanoes like Mount Rainier or Mount St. Helens in Washington or Kilauea or Mauna Loa in Hawaii.<\/p>\n \u201cThose volcanoes will have many eruptive episodes over a long life, with widespread hazardous effects,\u201d Valentine said. \u201cIn the past, these smaller monogenetic volcanoes really haven\u2019t been looked at from a focus on hazards; they have been instead studied mainly for what they tell us about the deep earth. Recently, however, there has been more buzz in the research community about how we need to take a look at the kinds of hazards these volcanoes might pose.<\/p>\n In addition to Ort and Valentine, Joaqu\u00edn A. Cort\u00e9s, senior lecturer of geology at Edge Hill University in England co-authored the paper.<\/p>\n Is northern Arizona at risk of another eruption?<\/strong><\/p>\n Activity in the San Francisco volcanic field is gradually moving northwest, though not in an orderly fashion, Ort said. Sunset Crater, which erupted about 1085 CE, is the most recent of these monogenetic volcanoes to erupt; other recent (in geological terms) eruptions are S P, Strawberry, O\u2019Neill and Merriam craters and the Sugarloaf Dome. It is unlikely that any of these would erupt again, but if any young volcanoes around those activated, residents in the immediate vicinity would be at risk, as well as infrastructure like U.S. 89, Townsend-Winona and Leupp roads, I-40 and the BNSF Railway.<\/p>\n The recurrence interval in the San Francisco Peaks is probably on the order of a few thousand years, though an additional project studying young volcanoes in the Cascades and Yellowstone will explicitly look at the dates for young eruptions to estimate the recurrence interval.<\/p>\n \u201cOne of the younger eruptions in the Southwest occurred south of Grants, New Mexico a few thousand years ago, and flowed for many miles parallel to what is now I-40 and part of the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad,\u201d Ort said. \u201cA similar eruption today would take out one of the most important east-west transportation routes in the country. Several volcanic fields lie along these routes, from the Mojave Desert of California to eastern New Mexico, including the one around Flagstaff.\u201d<\/p>\n Looking throughout the Southwest, the researchers estimated the chances of a new volcano emerging in the area within 100 years at about 8 percent, based on the total count of volcanoes that have erupted in the study region during the Quaternary Period.<\/p>\n But, Valentine noted, this figure embodies lots of uncertainty. It doesn\u2019t account for buried volcanoes, or the fact that a single eruption can create multiple vents. More research will be needed to refine this estimate and forecast likely locations for a new eruption.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s so much uncertainty here, and this is part of the problem,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s kind of a wide-open research field. When you look at the region from the perspective of volcanic hazards, we really have very little information. Most of the volcanoes have not been dated, so we don\u2019t know how old they are, except that they likely formed sometime within the Quaternary Period. Very few have been studied in detail.\u201d<\/p>\n That said, the study\u2019s findings indicate that the frequency of eruptions across the study region may approach that of individual volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest, Valentine and Ort say. The new paper highlights gaps in knowledge, and the scientists hope that it can act as a launchpad for future, more detailed research. As Ort and Valentine point out, a new Southwest volcano could appear anywhere in any active volcanic field.<\/p>\n \u201cWe don\u2019t have infinite resources, so we have to prioritize the efforts we put into forecasting and planning for hazards,\u201d Valentine said. \u201cBut how do you set priorities? If you\u2019re monitoring volcanic fields in the Southwest, where do you put the instruments? Being able to better answer questions like these is what we\u2019re moving toward.\u201d<\/p>\n These volcanoes won\u2019t erupt again. So why study them?<\/strong><\/p>\n The 2,000-plus volcanoes noted in the paper are done erupting, so they no longer pose a threat. But studying them is<\/p>\n important because of the potential for new volcanoes to bloom.<\/p>\n \u201cMonogenetic volcanoes tend to occur in areas that we call volcanic fields, and the American Southwest is just dotted with these,\u201d said Valentine, who grew up in New Mexico. \u201cThese are areas of high volcanic activity where future eruptions could happen, but we don\u2019t know when, and we don\u2019t know exactly where.\u201d<\/p>\n Most volcanoes in the southwestern U.S. are in remote locations, away from large population centers. In isolated areas, threats from eruptions could include ash plumes that disrupt travel (including air) or power distribution infrastructure, researchers say.<\/p>\n \u201cThe fundamental pieces of information that you need to have in order to start understanding the hazards and the chances of a future eruption are the number of volcanoes, their ages and the types of eruptions they have,\u201d Valentine added. \u201cWhat we set out to do in the study is find every bit of information that we could about these monogenetic volcanoes in the southwestern U.S. and compile it all in one place. How many of these are there? What are their characteristics? We got information from state geological surveys, published papers and other sources.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"![\"A](\"http:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wordpresst\/uploads\/sites\/153\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/dotsero-WP.jpg\")
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