{"id":64283,"date":"2021-10-25T11:07:16","date_gmt":"2021-10-25T18:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/?p=64283"},"modified":"2021-10-27T17:15:29","modified_gmt":"2021-10-28T00:15:29","slug":"alvarez-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/alvarez-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"How climate change contributes to global violence"},"content":{"rendered":"

*Editor\u2019s Note: The \u201cViews from NAU\u201d blog series highlights the thoughts of different people affiliated with NAU, including faculty members sharing opinions or research in their areas of expertise. The views expressed reflect the authors\u2019 own personal perspectives.<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

\"Alex<\/p>\n

By Alex Alvarez<\/span><\/h2>\n

Professor, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dr. Alex Alvarez studies collective and interpersonal violence. From 2001 until 2003 he was the founding director of the Martin-Springer Institute for Teaching the Holocaust, Tolerance, and Humanitarian Values. His latest book, Unstable Ground: Climate Change, Conflict, and Genocide, <\/em>looks at the human impact of climate change and its potential to provoke ethnic conflict, war and genocide.<\/p>\n

\n

On Nov. 1, the much-anticipated United Nations summit on Climate Change, known as COP26, is set to take place in Glasgow, Scotland. Its goal is to devise a global strategy on cutting emissions to keep alive the possibility of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a Paris Accord threshold beyond which the consequences become far more severe and even catastrophic. Some, such as U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, have suggested this conference is one of our last chances to prevent some of the worst outcomes of climate change. To add to this sense of urgency, the 2021 Lancet<\/em><\/a><\/span>\u00a0report on Health and Climate Change,\u00a0released in\u00a0early\u00a0October,\u00a0lays out in stark and grim detail the myriad ways in which the direct and indirect consequences of climate change pose significant threats to the health and\u00a0well-being\u00a0of humans around the world\u00a0on a scale we have\u00a0not experienced in the modern\u00a0world.\u00a0Whether through drought,\u00a0extreme\u00a0heat\u00a0waves, food insecurity,\u00a0lack\u00a0of potable water,\u00a0changing disease vectors\u00a0or any number of other impacts,\u00a0large\u00a0swaths\u00a0of\u00a0the globe\u00a0will increasingly\u00a0suffer from\u00a0unhealthy and dangerous conditions\u00a0brought about by climate change\u00a0that threaten to overwhelm the ability of\u00a0communities and\u00a0governments to\u00a0cope and adapt to these emerging\u00a0challenges.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To add\u00a0to this grim forecast,\u00a0not long after the\u00a0<\/span>Lancet\u00a0<\/span><\/i>report was released, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence distributed the first-ever National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change<\/a>, which\u00a0warns of global instability and heightened tensions and conflict between nations as the consequences of a warming world. Representing the collective assessment of all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies about the risks these changes hold for national security, the report not only identifies regions and nations that are particularly vulnerable to instability and conflict, but also points out that such situations tend to produce large number of refugees that are vulnerable to exploitation and persecution, can destabilize surrounding regions and create massive humanitarian disasters.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These reports come on the heels of earlier publications that only serve to\u00a0highlight the\u00a0crisis we find ourselves facing. One U.S.\u00a0government\u00a0report released\u00a0in 2020\u00a0detailed\u00a0the financial and human costs of climate change for the United States\u00a0and concluded that climate change\u00a0will cost hundreds of billions of dollars annually and will result in thousands of additional deaths every year from the direct and indirect consequences of a warmer world.\u00a0Of key importance are the\u00a0often interconnected\u00a0ways in which climate change will negatively impact infrastructure and transportation, energy demand and production, domestic and international trade, agriculture, fishing, tourism, water availability,\u00a0health care\u00a0and many other economic sectors of society. These kinds of\u00a0consequences\u00a0are not limited to the United States but are truly global in their impact. There is no nation or region of the world not affected by\u00a0climate change, although as these reports make clear, the negative impacts tend to be concentrated\u00a0among\u00a0nations and populations that are the poorest,\u00a0most vulnerable\u00a0and least equipped to handle such challenges.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As someone who studies collective violence, genocide\u00a0and mass atrocity, I have long been concerned with the\u00a0ways in which\u00a0climate\u00a0change\u00a0can\u00a0amplify\u00a0intolerance and persecution\u00a0and facilitate violent conflict, including\u00a0war and genocide.\u00a0Collective violence doesn\u2019t just erupt\u00a0spontaneously but\u00a0is brought about by\u00a0specific triggers and situations,\u00a0and\u00a0many of these\u00a0relate to the\u00a0consequences\u00a0of climate change.\u00a0Many\u00a0past and contemporary\u00a0conflicts and wars, for example,\u00a0have\u00a0revolved around protecting or acquiring\u00a0scarce or diminishing\u00a0resources,\u00a0especially\u00a0fresh potable\u00a0water. Given that around one quarter of the world\u2019s population is currently dealing with extreme water stress and critical shortages, a situation expected to worsen dramatically in the coming years, we can easily understand how access to fresh water can become a flash point for conflict. In fact, this precise issue has already strained relations\u00a0and heightened tensions\u00a0between\u00a0many\u00a0nations,\u00a0including\u00a0India and Pakistan, India and Bangladesh,\u00a0and\u00a0Yemen and Saudi Arabia,\u00a0to name just a few examples.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Population displacement\u00a0is another\u00a0potential source of conflict since all\u00a0estimates point to a\u00a0significant increase in the number of\u00a0people\u00a0dislocated\u00a0in the coming years and decades. Sometimes it will happen because of\u00a0catastrophic\u00a0weather\u00a0events such as flooding and hurricanes,\u00a0while other times it will occur because of slower climate change processes,\u00a0such as drought,\u00a0that\u00a0will\u00a0progressively drive people\u00a0from their homes, communities\u00a0and livelihoods.\u00a0It appears that the human climate niche is shrinking\u00a0dramatically,\u00a0and a lot more people will be on the move\u00a0in the coming years and decades as they\u00a0search\u00a0for\u00a0security, safety\u00a0and opportunity.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

All these challenges will strain the ability of governments to meet the needs of their citizens, heighten tensions among and between communities, populations and nations, and encourage othering, scapegoating and persecution of those defined as different, dangerous or simply superfluous. In short, as nations struggle to cope with catastrophic weather events, diminishing resources, environmental degradation, population dislocation and various other climate-induced problems, violence becomes not only possible, but also more likely. It is a situation tailor-made for the violent persecution of vulnerable population groups such as refugees and racial, religious and ethnic minorities. <\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These are dire scenarios and truly force us to confront the central crisis\u00a0of\u00a0our era. To prevent\u00a0the worst outcomes of\u00a0climate change, it is clear that we need to collectively implement\u00a0far more aggressive steps than\u00a0we have yet undertaken. This recognition seems to be\u00a0gaining momentum\u00a0as\u00a0individuals, communities\u00a0and\u00a0political and social leaders around the world\u00a0appear increasingly willing\u00a0to confront hard choices.\u00a0There is also hope to be found in the resilience displayed by many communities\u00a0during\u00a0the\u00a0COVID-19\u00a0pandemic. While social media and news reports have often focused on those\u00a0individuals, leaders\u00a0and communities that\u00a0have\u00a0fallen prey\u00a0to misinformation, hostility\u00a0and resistance\u00a0to public health measures,\u00a0we should\u00a0also\u00a0remember that\u00a0the vast majority of people\u00a0have not\u00a0reacted in such negative and hostile ways.\u00a0Across the globe,\u00a0we have seen\u00a0individuals and\u00a0communities\u00a0work\u00a0together to\u00a0care\u00a0for\u00a0and\u00a0support\u00a0each other\u00a0in often dire circumstances. Countless people\u00a0from all walks of life\u00a0have\u00a0sacrificed and risked\u00a0their own personal safety and comfort\u00a0to\u00a0provide aid and assistance\u00a0for\u00a0the sick\u00a0and to\u00a0preserve\u00a0the basic functioning of\u00a0society.\u00a0Persecution, violence\u00a0and anarchy are not inevitable\u00a0consequences of climate change, but instead reflect the choices we make\u00a0individually and collectively. How\u00a0we\u00a0choose to\u00a0respond\u00a0at this inflection point\u00a0in the history of humanity\u00a0will be critical for determining\u00a0the kind of\u00a0environment, planet\u00a0and\u00a0civilization that we leave for our children and their descendants.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

*Editor\u2019s Note: The \u201cViews from NAU\u201d blog series highlights the thoughts of different people affiliated with NAU, including faculty members sharing opinions or research in their areas of expertise. The views expressed reflect the authors\u2019 own personal perspectives. By Alex Alvarez Professor, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice Dr. Alex Alvarez studies collective and interpersonal…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":64297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-views-from-nau"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64283"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64283\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}