{"id":63285,"date":"2021-08-09T09:31:26","date_gmt":"2021-08-09T16:31:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/?p=63285"},"modified":"2021-08-12T08:47:02","modified_gmt":"2021-08-12T15:47:02","slug":"ipcc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/ipcc\/","title":{"rendered":"NAU\u2019s Kaufman lead author on IPCC global climate change report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) has just released its latest major assessment report on global climate change, approved by the world\u2019s governments.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i\/\"><em>Climate Change 2021: Physical Science Basis<\/em><\/a> is the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC\u2019s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The Working Group comprises more than 200 scientists from 66 countries who assessed the current scientific understanding of climate change. Northern Arizona University Regents\u2019 Professor <strong>Darrell Kaufman <\/strong>of the <a href=\"https:\/\/nau.edu\/ses\/?utm_source=google%20maps&amp;utm_medium=organic\">School of Earth and Sustainability<\/a> is a lead author of the report, which will form the scientific underpinnings for negotiations with governments later this year to limit global carbon emissions.<\/p>\n<p>The IPCC report is the world\u2019s most comprehensive and authoritative source of scientific information on understanding and responding to climate change. The report is based on a review of many thousands of scientific papers and is scrutinized by hundreds of scientists from around the world. Since the <em>Fifth Assessment Report <\/em>was published in 2013, new evidence shows how much humans are influencing the climate system, and how society\u2019s actions to limit greenhouse gas emissions will determine the future of Earth\u2019s climate.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe contributions of Dr. Kaufman and his team to the IPCC\u2019s Sixth Assessment Report, which is being played out on the world\u2019s stage, speak to NAU\u2019s stature as a research university as well as to the prominence of each of these individual scientists. As we continue to build on our strong legacy of environmental and climate science research, our paleoclimatologists have again proven that the value of this work lies in its global impact on public policy\u2014ultimately affecting the quality of life for all,\u201d NAU President \u00a0<strong>Jos\u00e9 Luis Cruz\u00a0Rivera<\/strong> said.<\/p>\n<p>Kaufman is a lead author on the chapter, \u201cThe changing state of the climate system,\u201d which features information about natural climate variability over a wide range of time scales. \u201cMy role in the new report focused on changes in the climate system prior to industrialization, or \u2018paleoclimate\u2019, as context for understanding what\u2019s happening now and what could happen in the future,\u201d Kaufman said.<\/p>\n<p>He also co-authored the report\u2019s FAQs and summary documents, including the \u201cSummary for policy makers,\u201d which was subjected to an intense line-by-line approval process involving dialogue between the authors and delegates from more than 100 countries. \u201cIt was a lot of work, but super gratifying to have the opportunity to carry it through to the approval step. That\u2019s where authors and governments collaborated to craft a summary that\u2019s timely and most helpful for policy decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The IPCC represents the world\u2019s scientific community by\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/stage.headlessnauedu-b6hgdzckfdgxgzhe.westus-01.azurewebsites.net\/steppingstone-climate-science-progress\/\">periodically reporting<\/a>\u00a0on the state of knowledge about climate change, following an extensive and transparent review process by experts and governments around the world to independently assess all published information and to summarize the most relevant advances in climate science.<\/p>\n<p>Recent publications by Kaufman and other NAU paleoclimate scientists were featured prominently in the report. The paleoclimate team includes professor <strong>R. Scott Anderson<\/strong>, associate professor <strong>Nicholas McKay<\/strong>, assistant professor of practice<strong> John Fegyveresi<\/strong> and assistant research professors <strong>Michael Erb<\/strong> and <strong>Cody Routson<\/strong>, as well as their postdoctoral researchers, graduate and undergraduate students. They study how the climate system changes on time scales of decades to many thousands of years, as it responds to both natural and human-caused forcings.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUnderstanding environmental change and its current trajectory requires a long-term perspective of the natural variability in the Earth system,\u201d he said. \u201cWe conduct our field-oriented research in Arizona, Colorado, Alaska, Antarctica and New Zealand.\u00a0In the lab, we analyze a variety of biological and physical properties of sediment cores that we collect from lakes, and ice cores from polar ice sheets. And in collaboration with our colleagues worldwide, we are developing major global datasets of long-term climate to better quantify past changes and to compare them with the output of Earth system models.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key NAU studies inform IPCC assessment<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Several major NAU research projects, funded chiefly through grants from the National Science Foundation, have been aimed at understanding the causes and effects of natural climate variability. The scientists\u2019 recent work clarifies how unusual recent global warming has been compared to natural climate fluctuations of the past.<\/p>\n<p>Evidence from warmer periods that occurred prior to industrialization, generated by NAU studies, was also used in the report to clarify how climate change will play out over multiple centuries and millennia, as polar ice, deep ocean circulation and other slow-moving features of the climate system adjust to a warmer world.<\/p>\n<p>Key NAU studies that contributed to the upcoming IPCC report include the following:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Over the past 150 years, global warming has more than undone the global cooling that occurred over the past six millennia, according to a major study published in 2020 in Nature Research\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41597-020-0530-7\"><em>Scientific Data<\/em><\/a>. The findings show that the millennial-scale global cooling began approximately 6,500 years ago when the long-term average global temperature topped out at around 0.7\u00b0C warmer than the mid-19th century. Since then, accelerating greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to global average temperatures that are now surpassing 1\u00b0C above the mid-19th century. <strong>Kaufman <\/strong>led this study, with McKay as co-author, along with collaborators\u00a0<strong>Routson<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<strong>Erb<\/strong>. The team worked with scientists from research institutions all over the world to reconstruct the global average temperature over the Holocene Epoch\u2014the period following the Ice Age and beginning about 12,000 years ago. (See related <a href=\"https:\/\/nau.edu\/nau-research\/global-cooling\/\">story<\/a>.)<\/li>\n<li>In 2020, NAU doctoral candidate\u00a0<strong>Ellie Broadman <\/strong>led a study published in the journal\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/117\/52\/33034\"><em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em><\/a>. Working with Kaufman\u00a0and four noted British scientists, Broadman and the team compiled a new record of hydroclimatic change in the past 10,000 years in Arctic Alaska, revealing that periods of reduced sea ice result in isotopically heavier precipitation derived from proximal Arctic moisture sources. The researchers supported their findings about this systematic relationship through isotope-enabled model simulations and a compilation of regional paleoclimate records. (See related <a href=\"https:\/\/nau.edu\/nau-research\/paleoclimate-study\/\">story<\/a>.)<\/li>\n<li>Also in 2020, an international group of 93 paleoclimate scientists from 23 countries\u2014led by Kaufman, McKay, Routson and Erb\u2014publisheda set of records in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41597-020-0445-3\"><em>Scientific Data<\/em><\/a> representing the most comprehensive paleoclimate data ever compiled for the past 12,000 years, compressing 1,319 data records based on samples taken from 679 sites globally. At each site, researchers analyzed ecological, geochemical and biophysical evidence from both marine and terrestrial archives, such as lake deposits, marine sediments, peat and glacier ice, to infer past temperature changes. Countless scientists working around the world over many decades conducted the basic research contributing to the global database.<\/li>\n<li>In 2019, Routson led the paleoclimate team in a study published in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-019-1060-3\"><em>Nature<\/em><\/a> using climate records dating back thousands of years to demonstrate that warming in the Arctic is associated with fewer storms and increased aridity in a huge swath of the Northern Hemisphere, including most of the continental United States. The scientists showed that this pattern could lead to dramatic effects on agriculture and population centers throughout the U.S., Europe and Asia. (See related <a href=\"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/arctic-warming-nature-paper\/#.YQlYVI5KiUl\">story<\/a>.)<\/li>\n<li>According to a 2016 study, global warming began in the Arctic and tropical oceans before thermometers were widespread enough to record the early signal. <strong>Kaufman<\/strong> and <strong>McKay<\/strong>, along with scientists from around the world, discovered that human-caused global warming began in the mid-1800s. The NAU scientists, who co-authored the study published in\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v536\/n7617\/full\/nature19082.html\"><em>Nature<\/em><\/a>, examined the climate variation found in corals, ice cores, tree rings and the changing chemistry of stalagmites in caves worldwide. (See related <a href=\"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/new-research-suggests-global-warming-began-decades-earlier\/#.YQGj7-hKiUk\">story<\/a>.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Several other NAU scientists have served on IPCC working groups and\/or contributed research to previous IPCC reports as well, including Regents\u2019 Professor\u00a0Scott Goetz, professor\u00a0Kevin Gurney, Regents\u2019 Professor\u00a0Bruce Hungate, Regents\u2019 Professor\u00a0Yiqi Luo, Regents\u2019 Professor\u00a0Michelle Mack, assistant research professor\u00a0<b>Christina Sch\u00e4del\u00a0<\/b>and Regents\u2019 Professor\u00a0Ted Schuur. All NAU scientists\u2019 efforts for the IPCC are voluntary.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wordpresst\/uploads\/sites\/153\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft  wp-image-56007\" src=\"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wordpresst\/uploads\/sites\/153\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514-300x213.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 123px) 100vw, 123px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wordpresst\/uploads\/sites\/153\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wordpresst\/uploads\/sites\/153\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514-768x546.png 768w, https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wordpresst\/uploads\/sites\/153\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514-600x426.png 600w, https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wordpresst\/uploads\/sites\/153\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/NAU_primary-281_3514.png 905w\" alt=\"Northern Arizona University Logo\" width=\"123\" height=\"87\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Kerry Bennett | Office of the Vice President for Research<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"search-results-excerpt-link\" href=\"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/ipcc\/\">The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) has just released its latest major assessment report on global climate change, approved by the world\u2019s governments. Climate Change 2021: Physical Science Basis is the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC\u2019s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The Working Group comprises more than 200 scientists from 66 countries who&hellip;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":63286,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-academics"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63285","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63285"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63285\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/63286"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63285"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63285"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/in.nau.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63285"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}