Asteroid impacts, while rare, can be catastrophic. Meteor crater is a visible example of such an event. The initial impact hazards are non-ionizing thermal
radiation, a blast wave, and an ejecta plume. Secondary, or cascading hazards, could be wildfires, downwind ejecta plume non-radioactive fallout, and
the potential for future downstream flooding. The broad scope of this project is to model those cascading hazards and possibly the resulting societal
consequences. Initial effects from a variety of hypothetical asteroid impact or airburst scenarios are available from the NASA Asteroid Threat Analysis
Program (ATAP). We are currently using USGS Ash3D to model downwind fallout hazards. We use GeoClaw to model the potential for post impact
downstream flooding. We are not currently modeling secondary wildfires, but that could be an option for a student interested in that topic. Depending on
the student’s qualifications, capabilities and interests, we would determine which cascading hazard to focus on: fires, fallout, or floods. We would provide
an opportunity for the student to present his/her research results at one of the ATAP-lead Modeling Working Group meetings and submit an abstract to
the biennial planetary defense conference.
The student would initially be expected to conduct a literature review of planetary defense with a focus on cascading hazards and gain (or improve their)
computer modeling skills in either IDL or Python. Cascading hazard modeling code would need to be modified for specific impact cases. The student
would then need to run a suite of models, compile the output and analyze the results, either using either IDL or Python. Some IDL analysis routines will
be available from the project mentor, but the student will have an opportunity to improve his/her programming skills. Once model results are analyzed,
hazards maps will be generated and compared to population, infrastructure, and land use maps to evaluate social consequences.
The desired outcome would be at least one presentation to the ATAP Modeling Working Group, a submission of an abstract to the biennial planetary
defense conference (PDC) and the production of a poster that can be shown at the PDC. If significant progress if achieved, the student will have the
opportunity to contribute, or possibly lead, to the submission of a peer-revied paper.